STELLFELD, Maria Carolina; PAULA, Eduardo Vedor de    PASSOS, Everton. Predictive scenarios of shoreline positioning of Matinhos - Paraná (Brazil): subsidies for coastal management. []. , 113, pp.3-22. ISSN 0430-5027.  https://doi.org/10.18055/Finis18639.

The Brazilian government launched in 2018 a National Program for Shoreline Conservation - PROCOSTA, a permanent program directed at gathering reliable information regarding the current coastline situation, predictions and identifying possible shoreline hazards. These hazards can be defined as natural phenomena that can result in material and human damages, including coastal erosion processes. This paper seeks to identify the shoreline variations, observing selected sites with erosion and to predict scenarios following the time set intervals suggested by PROCOSTA in the city of Matinhos, on the South coast of the state of Paraná - Brazil. The results are presented with possible solutions to the coastal erosion problems with the investigated data which comprises an overall analysis of the Matinhos shoreline evolution, generated from spatial and temporal images acquired from a time interval between 1951 until 2016. The sites studied near anthropogenic interference, at the shoreline and next to the mouth of the Matinhos river present scenarios suggesting that the infrastructures built on the beachfront will be reached by the sea in the next 25 years. Beaches located north of Matinhos with preserved spits vegetation have presented a more stable scenario, where erosion does not tend to reach the buildings within a period of 100 years. This paper is aware of the limitations of the temporal mapping of shorelines and it is not a prediction, but intends to be a starting point for land use and sustainable future planning, providing a base for assertive actions.

: PROCOSTA; coastal erosion; predictive scenarios.

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