Resumo

JUAREZ, Abraham Briones  e  CASTRO, Judith Alejandra Velázquez. Trend Model for complex series: case study hotel rates. RISTI [online]. 2023, n.50, pp.73-90.  Epub 30-Jun-2023. ISSN 1646-9895.  https://doi.org/10.17013/risti.50.73-90.

In The rigorous analysis of data in tourism is increasingly common as a result of the effects suffered by covid-19, which has contributed to identifying trajectories based on historical data. In this article, a combination of complexity theory and exponential smoothing is proposed to understand the patterns that help to estimate the seasonality and trend in hotel rates. To do this, the series is fragmented into partitions to explore the similarity and five plotting methods are applied. The results show that the graph of the length R, is the only one that displays anti-persistence, with a saturation in time n=8, this data is used as the length cycle of the additive Holt-Winters model whose parameters (a= 0.36, b=0.78, y=0.67), minimize the error presented. It is concluded that the combination of numerical analysis methods allows the seasonal adjustment in the tariff data.

Palavras-chave : Hotel rates; anti-persistence; minimization.

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