As eleições de Junho de 2004 para o parlamento europeu: ainda eleições de segunda ordem?

Hermann Schmitt*

Há um quarto de século, as primeiras eleições para o Parlamento Europeu foram caracterizadas como eleições nacionais de segunda ordem. Desde então houve muitas coisas que mudaram e que poderão ter afectado essa classificação. No presente artigo exponho novamente os pressupostos e previsões fundamentais do modelo de eleições de segunda ordem, confrontando-os com os resultados das eleições de 2004 para o Parlamento Europeu e de um inquérito pós-eleitoral. As ilações extraídas confirmam que as eleições para o PE na Europa ocidental continuam a ser de segunda ordem. Contudo, nos oito novos Estados membros da Europa central e oriental, a situação apresenta-se muito diferente.

Palavras-chave: Participação eleitoral, Eleições, Parlamento Europeu 2004

Les élections européennes de juin 2004: sont-elles encore de second ordre?

Il y a un quart de siècle, les premières élections européennes ont été classées comme étant des élections nationales de second ordre. Depuis lors, bien des choses ont changé et peuvent avoir affecté ce classement. Mon article expose à nouveau les présupposés et les prévisions fondamentales du modèle d’élections de second ordre, et les confronte avec les résultats des élections européennes de 2004 et ceux d’une enquête post-électorale. Les déductions qui en découlent confirment que les élections européennes en Europe occidentale sont toujours considérées comme étant de second ordre. Toutefois, dans les huit nouveaux Etats-membres de l’Europe centrale et orientale, la situation se présente bien différemment.

The European Parliament elections of June 2004: still second-order?

A quarter of a century ago the first series of European Parliament elections have been characterised as second-order national elections. A lot has changed since which might have had an impact upon this diagnosis. In this article I restate the central assumptions and predictions of the secondorder elections model, and evaluate them against the outcome of the 2004 European Parliament election and a post-election survey. Surprisingly enough, the findings confirm the persisting second-order nature of EP elections for Western Europe. Things look very different, however, in the eight new Central- and East European member countries.

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* MZES, Universidade de Mannheim.