Methodology to assess thermal extremes mortality risk in urban areas

 

Paulo Canário^*

^*Research Group of Climate & Environmental Changes (CliMA), Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), Institute of Geography & Spatial Planning (IGOT). E-mail: pmscanario@gmail.com

 

ABSTRACT – The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity) and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter). Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales) and their exposure to thermal extremes.

Key words: Heat wave, mortality, risk, vulnerability, sensitivity.

 

Metodologia para a avaliação de risco de mortalidade por extremos térmicos em áreas urbanas.

RESUMO – O impacte das ondas de calor na mortalidade tem sido objecto de numerosos estudos e tem sido alvo da atenção de vários organismos governamentais nacionais e internacionais. Só no Verão de 2003, excepcionalmente quente, terá havido uma sobremortalidade de 70 000 pessoas em 12 países europeus. A tendência global de aquecimento levará a um aumento na frequência, duração e intensidade das ondas de calor e a um aumento na mortalidade atribuível ao calor. A necessidade de avaliar o risco de morte atribuível a extremos térmicos a uma escala espacial detalhada determinou o desenvolvimento de uma investigação alicerçada num modelo geral de risco para fenómenos naturais potencialmente destruidores assente na relação entre perigosidade e vulnerabilidade para ser aplicado essencialmente em áreas urbanas. Consideram-se como principais elementos constituintes da perigosidade as variáveis meteorológicas que determinam o complexo térmico (temperatura do ar, temperatura radiativa, vento e humidade) bem como variáveis relacionadas com a qualidade do ar (principalmente o ozono e as partículas). A vulnerabilidade é considerada tendo em conta a sensibilidade das populações (a várias escalas espaciais) e a sua exposição aos extremos térmicos.

Palavras-chave: Onda de calor, mortalidade, risco, vulnerabilidade, sensibilidade.

 

Methodologie pour l’evaluation du risque de mortalite du aux temperatures extremes en zones urbaines

RESUME – De nombreuses études ont été consacrées à l’impact des ondes de chaleur sur la mortalité, de la part d’organismes gouvernementaux ou internationaux. Pendant l’été 2003, exceptionnellement chaud, la surmortalité aurait atteint 70 000 individus, dans 12 pays européens. La tendance mondiale au réchauffement va augmenter la fréquence, la durée et l’intensité des ondes de chaleur et donc la mortalité résultante. Pour mieux connaître, à une échelle spatiale détaillée, le risque de mort attribuable aux extrêmes thermiques, on a développé une recherche basée sur un modèle général du risque applicable aux phénomènes naturels potentiellement destructifs en zones urbaines et reposant sur le rapport existant entre la périgosité et la vulnérabilité. Les principaux éléments constituant la périgosité seraient les variables météorologiques déterminant le complexe thermique (température de l’air, température radiative, vent et humidité) et les variables relatives à la qualité de l’air (surtout l’ozone et les particules). La vulnérabilité prend en compte la sensibilité des populations, aux diverses échelles spatiales, et leur degré d’exposition aux extrêmes thermiques.

Mots-clés: Ondes de chaleur, mortalité, risque, vulnérabilité, sensibilité.

 

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Recebido: 18/09/2009. Aceite: 11/02/2010