Experiências supply-siders na UE15: a redução de impostos como política de melhoria da posição orçamental intertemporal

Conceição Castro*

mariacastro@eseig.ipp.pt

(recebido em 21 de Julho de 2007; aceite em 3 de Outubro de 2007)

 

Resumo: A Curva de Laffer postula que a partir de determinados níveis de taxas de impostos, uma redução destas pode aumentar as receitas fiscais. Tendo presentes os recentes desenvolvimentos da teoria do crescimento económico, que predizem que a política fiscal tem efeitos permanentes de longo prazo na taxa de crescimento económico, aquele argumento pode ser encarado num contexto dinâmico: a fiscalidade afecta permanentemente a taxa de crescimento económico de longo prazo, alterando as bases fiscais futuras, melhorando, em consequência, a posição orçamental de longo prazo. Neste artigo procura-se averiguar a validação de um efeito Laffer dinâmico para os Estados-Membros da União Europeia dos 15 e, em consequência, se a política fiscal pode ser gerida de forma a substituir o endividamento por reduções de impostos.

Palavras-chave: Curva de Laffer – Política fiscal

 

Abstract: Laffer’s curve proclaims that from certain income tax levels, their reduction may raise tax revenues. Knowing the most recent developments of the economic growth theory, that predict that the fiscal policy has permanent long term effects on the economic growth the previous argument may be seen in a dynamic context: the fiscal policy permanently affects the long term economic growth, changing the future fiscal bases, consequently improving the long term budget position. The present work aims the verification of the dynamic Laffer’s effect validation to EU15 members and, consequently, if fiscal policy can be managed to substitute indebtedness for tax reductions.

Keywords: Laffer curve – Fiscal policy

 

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*ESEIG - Escola Superior de Estudos Industriais e de Gestão, Instituto Politécnico do Porto