Abstract

AGUIAR-CONFRARIA, Luís; ALEXANDRE, Fernando  and  PINHO, Manuel Correia de. The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy: a counter­factual analysis. Anál. Social [online]. 2012, n.203, pp.298-321. ISSN 0003-2573.

Portugal faced a decade of feeble economic growth after joining the European Economic and Monetary Union. Systematic research of the specific effects of this regime change on growth is still lacking. The ­counterfactual analysis that we undertake in this paper seeks to fill such a gap. Our findings suggest that the adoption of the Euro did have adverse effects on Portuguese economy. To the contrary, in 2009, the Euro seems to have sheltered the ­Portuguese economy from the worse effects of the international financial crisis.

Keywords : euro; economy; European Union; Portugal; counterfactual analysis.

        · abstract in Portuguese     · text in Portuguese     · Portuguese ( pdf )