Abstract

GOMES, Maria Cristina Sousa; SILVA, Carlos Jorge; CASTRO, Eduardo Anselmo de  and  MARQUES, João Lourenço. Fertility trends in Portugal: a regional diversity approach. Anál. Social [online]. 2016, n.218, pp.36-70. ISSN 0003-2573.

This paper analyzes the fertility trends based on a spatial approach. The application of theMoran’s Indexrevealed the presence of a spatial dependence phenomenon, i.e. an auto-correlation inherent to the heterogeneous behavior of fertility throughout the Portuguese territory. Given the changing pattern, a bivariate analysis was made to identify the socio-economic factors that might be associated with it.Through the use of a regression model it was possible to find that the factors explaining the evolution of fertility have changed over time, reflecting the cultural, social,and economic transformations of the Portuguese society.

Keywords : spatial auto-correlation; fertility evolution patterns; fertility regional diversity.

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