Resumen

CUNHA, M. et al. Early estimate of wine production by means of airborne pollen . Ciência Téc. Vitiv. [online]. 1999, vol.14, n.2, pp.45-54. ISSN 0254-0223.

With the objective of forecasting the annual production of must (fermenting grape juice) in the Douro Demarcated Region (RDD), we have been proceeding since 1992 to the monitoring of airborne pollen concentration (CPA) in two strategic places of the region, using the “Cour Method” (Cour, 1974). With the obtained series of pollen/production data, we build on a model whose tests indicate that 93% of the fluctuation of the regional production can be explained and predicted through pollen concentration. In 1999, the pollen samples obtained and adjusted to the above mentioned model, indicate an average of must production of 220.000 casks of 550 L., being the respective confidence interval of the average (p During the post-blossom period, a great lack of rainfall is more accentuated in the Demarcated Region of the Douro than in other regions where this pollen analysis method has been applied for the forecasting of the crop. It seems that the inter-annual fluctuations of the production are more dependent of the amount of pollen in the air and relegate to a second plan the consequences of the water stress.

Palabras clave : Viticulture; Forecast; Vintage; Demarcated Region of the Douro; climate; Pollen.

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