Abstract

SILVA NETO, Waldemiro Alcântara da  and  RIBEIRO, Viviane Pires. Brazilian beef exports to the main destinations: a persistence to shocks analysis. Rev. de Ciências Agrárias [online]. 2020, vol.43, n.spe1, pp.71-80.  Epub Dec 01, 2020. ISSN 0871-018X.  https://doi.org/10.19084/rca.18995.

Brazil is undoubtedly one of the biggest players in agribusiness today, and has a competitive agricultural sector, a strong agroindustry and solid institutions. Exports in 2018 of this segment of the Brazilian economy exceeded US$ 85 billion, and the meat complex accounted for US$ 14.7 billion. However, Brazil suffers internal and external pressures, which affect the expectations of agents and generates great noises for the producers, especially the exporters. In this regard, the objective of this article is to analyze whether the series of exports of beef, in currency (US$) and in commercialized (pound), to the main destinations present persistence to shocks. Specifically, we seek to test for the presence of long memory in the series, to verify the existence of a structural break in the data and to identify if there is heterogeneity in the behavior of the series. The methodology is based on the Econometrics of Time Series, specifically on the long memory test of Robinson (1995a) to identify the degree of persistence to shocks. The results showed that the series have long memory, thus showing that the Brazilian beef export market is consolidated internationally and that exogenous shocks do not persistently and permanently affect exports.

Keywords : International Trade; Livestock; Long Memory Test.

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