Resumo

SERRAO, Amílcar  e  ANASTACIO, João. An Applied Mathematical Programming Model to the Portuguese Agricultural Sector. Inv. Op. [online]. 2003, vol.23, n.1, pp.17-34. ISSN 0874-5161.

This study evaluates the effects, in the Portuguese agricultural sector, of the Agenda 2000 and of the increase of trade liberalization, resulting from the enlargement to East of the European Union and of the progressive elimination of the barriers for international trade, consequence of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The problem of this research work is the decrease of the Portuguese farmers' income determined by the application of the Agenda 2000 and of a larger liberalization of the agricultural markets. The objective of this study is the evaluation of the effects of the alteration of the agricultural policies on the welfare of consumers and producers. The assessment of the effects of those alternative agricultural policies is made by a mathematical model under risk for the Portuguese agricultural sector that includes representative crop and livestock activities by agricultural areas and farms and considers alternative agricultural policies under larger liberalization of the agricultural markets. The results show a decrease of the sum of the surpluses of the consumer and of the producer for all the alternative politics and an increase of the consumer's surplus in the scenarios of larger opening to trade changes. The same ones also suggest the choice of alternative activities to privilege the Mediterranean agricultural products and other agricultural activities where the Portuguese agricultural sector has comparative advantage.

Palavras-chave : Mathematical programming model; risk; agricultural sector; Common Agricultural Policy.

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