Resumo

FERNANDES, Rui; GOUVEIA, Joaquim Borges  e  PINHO, Carlos. Uncertainty demand measurement in supply chains with multiple inventory points. Rev. Portuguesa e Brasileira de Gestão [online]. 2011, vol.10, n.4, pp.67-79. ISSN 1645-4464.

The main goal of this study is the definition of an indicator able to measure the impact of demand volatility in different supply chain stages. Specifically, we aim the importance of the uncertainty measurement, at different points in a supply chain, in order to support managers in defining the optimal inventory levels. With this metric, managers are able to establish more reliable and aligned inventory targets, considering the risk exposure and promoting the invested capital optimisation. The model is based on the real options methodology. Overall, our investigation increases the knowledge related with inventory optimisation and supply chain performance under uncertainty environments. The numerical application supports the conclusion about the adverse effects on the invested capital value, as a result of the introduction of non-optimal values ??in sequential stages, considering different uncertainty penetration levels.

Palavras-chave : Uncertainty; Capacity Options; Real Options; Supply chain.

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