Abstract

SOUSA, Joana  and  OLIVEIRA, Isabel. Prediction variables pertaining to the bankruptcy of Portuguese clothing and leather goods companies. Rev. Portuguesa e Brasileira de Gestão [online]. 2014, vol.13, n.1, pp.62-73. ISSN 1645-4464.

The current economic and financial situation makes it increasingly possible for a company to enter bankruptcy. As a result, the creation of a model that can anticipate this is indeed crucial so that the necessary measures can be taken to prevent bankruptcy. The purpose of this article is to analyze the determinant variables of bankruptcy prediction of Portuguese companies, based on 35 companies from 2007 to 2009. The logit model was used and the variables used by Altman et al. (1977) and Ohlson (1980) were tested. The variables that were tested and showed to be significant for predicting bankruptcy were: the ratio of the cumulative profitability, the ratio of asset profitability, as well as the size of the company. The logit model with these three variables brought about the result of 83 and 80% respectively for a two and one-year period before bankruptcy.

Keywords : Bankruptcy; Insolvency; The Logit Model.

        · abstract in Portuguese | Spanish     · text in Portuguese     · Portuguese ( pdf )