Abstract

JOFFE, George. The Arab Spring in North Africa: origins and prospects. Relações Internacionais [online]. 2011, n.30, pp.85-116. ISSN 1645-9199.

The insurgencies in Tunisia and Egypt seemed to offer great hope of the outbreak of democratic change in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the civil war in Libya and the ongoing crises in Yemen and Syria suggest that overall regional change may prove to be more difficult to achieve. The causes for the insurgency are similar but the outcomes differ because two of the states concerned were liberalizing autocracies and the third - Libya - had resolutely rejected any political or social competitors. Even the liberalized autocracies face very different futures for, in Tunisia a whole system has been removed whilst in Egypt, the regime rejected its figurehead in order to preserve the regime.

Keywords : North Africa; Middle East; democracy; social movements.

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