Abstract

NAGY, Gustavo J. et al. Adjusting to current climate threats and building alternative future scenarios for the Rio de la Plata coast and estuarine front, Uruguay. RGCI [online]. 2014, vol.14, n.4, pp.553-568. ISSN 1646-8872.  https://doi.org/10.5894/rgci472.

In this paper we present a climate adjustment and scenario building experience in the coastal areas of Uruguay within the framework of GEF-Project ”Implementing pilot sites adaptation measures in coastal Uruguay”. The Project goals are to increase resilience, promote interactions between relevant institutions and stakeholders, and to incorporate climate threats in the political agenda. Assuming that many readers are more familiar with Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) than with climate adaptation a summary of concepts is presented based on both the international literature and local experience. Emphasis is put on the knowledge of coastal climate-driven threats, the implications of adaptive and risk-based management approaches to current climate, adaptation planning, and future scenarios. Then, a review of our recent publications on the subject is made in order to give a picture of the lessons learned during the Project experience. Here we focus on the Rio de la Plata’s estuarine front “Adaptation Pilot Site” and the interaction between scientists and stakeholders from 2009-2013. Emphasis is put on recent climatic time-series (1997-2012) since during this period most of them reverted as compared to the Project’s climate baselines (1961-2008). This short-term variability is fundamental to cope with current climate threats (adjustment) and introduces additional uncertainties to future scenarios. The continuous interaction with stakeholders and experts allows building alternative futures from the current perspective and climate models. The process itself - planning and implementing actions - creates capacity to move forward. Natural and social scientists continuously inform stakeholders, to promote adjustment, interactive adaptive management, and planning. Thinking of “futures” together with experts and stakeholders can be thought as a “what if” learning exercise and a way to develop alternative scenarios.

Keywords : Adaptation concepts; Climate Drivers, Monitoring; Coastal Areas; South America.

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