Abstract

BARBOSA, Jefferson Ferreira; MARINHO, Marcelo Luiz Monteiro  and  MOURA, Hermano Perrelli de. Towards a Model for Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification in Software Projects: An Action Research. RISTI [online]. 2021, n.44, pp.67-83.  Epub Dec 31, 2021. ISSN 1646-9895.  https://doi.org/10.17013/risti.44.67-83.

The evolution of project management thinking has increased interest in areas not yet explored by project management researchers and practitioners, such as uncertainty management. Applying epistemic uncertainty management in software projects can represent a competitive differential for the software industry. However, despite the growing use of uncertainty management approaches, many projects still fail. Some studies show that the existing approaches used to manage uncertainty do not consider its quantitative aspect. An Action Research (AR) was conducted to investigate the quantification of epistemic uncertainty in a real context. This paper illustrates the benefit of applying uncertainty quantification approaches to reduce and prioritize epistemic uncertainty management in an agile software design team. Finally, a model is presented to deal with the management of epistemic uncertainty.

Keywords : Software Project Management; Epistemic Uncertainty Management; Quantification of Uncertainty; Action Research; Bayesian Networks.

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