Abstract

CAMARGO, Kelly Cristina de Moraes; MARCOS, Mariana; LOPEZ-GAY, Antonio  and  CABRERIZO, Juan Antonio Módenes. From building to managing the housing stock: Analysis of the demographic residential demand of São Paulo (1991-2040). CIDADES [online]. 2022, vol.45, pp.181-200.  Epub Dec 29, 2022. ISSN 2182-3030.  https://doi.org/10.15847/cct.27040.

Although housing policy issues have been widely discussed in Brazil, most quantitative studies have analyzed the housing shortage, whereas demographic demand for housing has hardly been discussed. In this sense, the article’s aim is to place the demographic demand for housing in the foreground as a determinant factor for the estimation of housing construction needs. At the same time, this research addresses the policy debate emerging from recent and future trends in housing formation in the urban region of São Paulo by carrying out our own estimates and projections on quantitative household dynamics. Three forecast scenarios (minimum, intermediate and maximum) are considered. The main policy implication is that fulfilling the young households’ demand will increasingly depend on the reuse of already built housing stock, released by the dissolution outflow of older households. Future housing policies must sustain and support this process.

Keywords : demographic demand for housing; household projection; housing policy; Latin America; São Paulo.

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