Abstract

MAIOR, Paulo Vila. Going back to abnormality: From the War in Ukraine to the inflationary surge. População e Sociedade [online]. 2023, n.39, pp.26-45.  Epub Oct 02, 2023. ISSN 0873-1861.  https://doi.org/10.52224/21845263/rev39a3.

The invasion of Ukraine was a critical juncture on the International Economy with an economic crisis characterised by sudden and unexpected inflation. Before the invasion, economic agents and political actors (at the national, supranational, and international levels) were converted to low and long-term stable inflation. A perceived line of stability was abruptly eroded. Section 1 approaches the immediate causes of soaring inflation. Section 2 addresses the implications of a (then) unexpected inflation, considering the timing of macroeconomic forecasts for 2022. Section 3 explores the microeconomic effects of high and persistent inflation. Section 4 brings the normative dimension into the analysis, going back to the unfinished controversy between the two leading schools of economic thought (Keynesian and monetarist) on the macroeconomic priorities that influence the design of economic policy.

Keywords : War in Ukraine; Inflation; Economic Crisis; Economic Policy; Worldwide Geopolitics..

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