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vol.38 suppl.1Internamentos hospitalares durante a primeira vaga de COVID-19 em PortugalCOVID-19 Impacto em profissionais de saúde de um hospital: desenvolvimento de um programa de gestão do risco em saúde ocupacional. índice de autoresíndice de assuntosPesquisa de artigos
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Portuguese Journal of Public Health

versão impressa ISSN 2504-3137versão On-line ISSN 2504-3145

Resumo

SOUSA, Paulo et al. COMPRIME - Conhecer mais para intervir melhor: preliminary mapping of municipal level determinants of COVID-19 transmission in Portugal at different moments of the 1st epidemic wave. Port J Public Health [online]. 2020, vol.38, suppl.1, pp.18-25.  Epub 31-Mar-2021. ISSN 2504-3137.  https://doi.org/10.1159/000514334.

Background:

The role of demographic and socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 transmission is still unclear and is expected to vary in different contexts and epidemic periods. Exploring such determinants may generate a hypothesis about transmission and aid the definition of prevention strategies.

Objectives:

To identify municipality-level demographic and socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 in Portugal.

Methods:

We assessed determinants of COVID-19 daily cases at 4 moments of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Portugal, related with lockdown and post-lockdown measures. We selected 60 potential determinants from 5 dimensions: population and settlement, disease, economy, social context, and mobility. We conducted a multiple linear regression (MLR) stepwise analysis (p < 0.05) and an artificial neural network (ANN) analysis with the variables to identify predictors of the number of daily cases.

Results:

For MLR, some of the identified variables were: resident population and population density, exports, overnight stays in touristic facilities, the location quotient of employment in accommodation, catering and similar activities, education, restaurants and lodging, some industries and building construction, the share of the population working outside the municipality, the net migration rate, income, and renting. In ANN, some of the identified variables were: population density and resident population, urbanization, students in higher education, income, exports, social housing buildings, production services employment, and the share of the population working outside the municipality of residence.

Conclusions:

Several factors were identified as possible determinants of COVID-19 transmission at the municipality level. Despite limitations to the study, we believe that this information should be considered to promote communication and prevention approaches. Further research should be conducted.

Palavras-chave : Municipal level; COVID-19; Pandemics; Linear model; Non-linear model.

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