<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0003-2573</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análise Social]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. Social]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0003-2573</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0003-25732009000400006</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[New series of Portuguese population and employment, 1950-2007: implications for GDP per capita and labor productivity]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Novas séries para a população e o emprego em Portugal, 1950-2007: implicações para o PIB per capita e a produtividade]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Amaral]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luciano]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A01"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNL - Universidade Nova de Lisboa Faculdade de Economia ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Lisboa ]]></addr-line>
<country>Portugal</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>193</numero>
<fpage>767</fpage>
<lpage>791</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0003-25732009000400006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0003-25732009000400006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0003-25732009000400006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[The two most important international databases with Portuguese GDP per capita and productivity from the 1950s onwards (GGDC and Ameco) offer two contrasting pictures of its evolution, especially during the slowdown of 1973 to the mid-1980s. The main problem is the low quality of the underlying data for population and employment. This paper offers new estimates for population and employment and recalculates GDP per capita and productivity between 1950 and 2007. Although confirming the main idea advanced in GGDC (a similar slowdown of GDP per capita and productivity), the series are different, and should be viewed as the new benchmark for the Portuguese economy]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[As duas mais importantes bases internacionais com dados para o PIB per capita e produtividade da economia portuguesa dos anos 50 em diante (GGDC e Ameco) oferecem dois retratos opostos da sua evolução, em especial durante o abrandamento entre 1973 e os anos 80. O principal problema é a qualidade dos dados de base sobre população e emprego. Oferecem-se aqui novas estimativas e apresentam-se novos cálculos do PIB per capita e da produtividade do trabalho entre 1950 e 2007. Confirma-se a ideia transmitida em GGDC (abrandamento semelhante do PIB per capita e produtividade), mas as séries são diferentes, devendo as séries aqui apresentadas ficar como as novas referências para a economia portuguesa.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Portugal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GDP per capita]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[labor productivity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[new series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Portugal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[PIB per capita]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[produtividade do trabalho]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[novas séries]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><body><![CDATA[ <p><b>New series of Portuguese population and employment, 1950-2007: implications for GDP per capita and labor productivity</b></p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>      <p><b>Luciano Amaral*</b></p>     <p>* Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Campolide 1099-032    Lisboa, Portugal. e-mail: <a href="mailto:lamaral@fe.unl.pt">lamaral@fe.unl.pt</a></p>         <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>The two most important international databases with Portuguese GDP per capita    and productivity from the 1950s onwards (GGDC and Ameco) offer two contrasting    pictures of its evolution, especially during the slowdown of 1973 to the mid-1980s.    The main problem is the low quality of the underlying data for population and    employment. This paper offers new estimates for population and employment and    recalculates GDP per capita and productivity between 1950 and 2007. Although    confirming the main idea advanced in GGDC (a similar slowdown of GDP per capita    and productivity), the series are different, and should be viewed as the new    benchmark for the Portuguese economy.</p>         <p><b>Keywords:</b> Portugal; GDP per capita; labor productivity; new series.</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>        <p><b>Novas séries para a      população e o emprego em Portugal, 1950-2007: implicações para o PIB <i>per</i><i> capita</i> e a produtividade</b></p>        <p>As duas mais importantes bases internacionais      com dados para o PIB <i>per</i><i> capita</i> e      produtividade da economia portuguesa dos anos 50 em diante (GGDC e Ameco)      oferecem dois retratos opostos da sua evolução, em especial durante o abrandamento      entre 1973 e os anos 80. O principal problema é a qualidade dos dados de base      sobre população e emprego. Oferecem-se aqui novas estimativas e apresentam-se      novos cálculos do PIB <i>per</i><i> capita</i> e da produtividade do trabalho entre      1950 e 2007. Confirma-se a ideia transmitida em GGDC (abrandamento semelhante      do PIB <i>per</i><i> capita</i> e produtividade),      mas as séries são diferentes, devendo as séries aqui apresentadas ficar como      as novas referências para a economia portuguesa.</p>        ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><b>Palavras-chave:</b> Portugal; PIB <i>per</i><i>      capita</i>; produtividade do trabalho; novas séries. </p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>         <p><b>Introduction</b> </p>        <p>International databases providing a vast array of information on the various      national economies of the world have become increasingly comprehensive and      reliable. We can now turn to various databases tracking the very long-run      economic performance of the world, sometimes back to the year 0 (as in Maddison, 2006, which had as predecessors, Maddison, 1989 and 1995). It is not just in chronological      and geographical extension that the databases have been improved, but also      in the quality of the underlying data. Such databases as that of the Groningen      Growth and Development Centre (GGDC, see GGDC) and Eurostat’s      Ameco (see Eurostat) tend      to use the latest national updates on historical statistics and even official      data. The usefulness of such exercises is obvious. We are now able to compare      the performance of a large number of economies for substantially long periods      of time. </p>        <p>There is, however, a slight drawback in these exercises, which is to give      the impression that they are the source of absolutely rigorous statistical      material. In reality, fundamental data to build historical statistics are      sometimes absent, and are often replaced by arbitrary assumptions and decisions.      Historical series are sometimes nothing more than hypotheses on the evolution      of certain economies, rather than precise descriptions. Consequently, caution      should be the rule in the use of such databases. </p>        <p>One might believe that the closer one is to the present and to the more      developed economies of the world, the more reliable the data provided by national      statistics offices would be. However, in this paper I reveal basic data problems      regarding Portugal in the 1960s and 1970s. These are important problems because      they impinge on the picture we draw of the Portuguese economy during both      its golden age of the 1960s and its slowdown of the mid-1970s. Additionally,      they raise serious doubts as to the reliability for that period of the two      most important international datasets currently available, Ameco and GGDC. </p>         <p>Ameco and GGDC present two contrasting pictures of the performance of the Portuguese    economy in that period. Although they indicate virtually no difference in terms    of GDP per capita (figure 1), the same is not true of GDP per worker: Ameco    shows a level that is consistently below GGDC from 1960 to 1990 (figure 2) and,    consequently, also shows higher rates in the same period, mostly between 1973    and 1986 (3.01% versus 1.1%) (table I). These differences lead to two entirely    different stories regarding the performance of the Portuguese economy during    the mid-1970s slowdown. Whereas GGDC data indicate a paltry Portuguese performance    in terms of productivity from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, Ameco’s indicate    the opposite. </p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>      <p><b><a name="f1"></a>GDP per capita, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis    dollars)</b></p>      <p>[<a href="#topf1">figure 1</a>]</p>      ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f1.jpg" width="511" height="276"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b><a name="f2"></a>GDP per worker, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis    dollars)</b></p>      <p>[<a href="#topf2">figure 2</a>]</p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f2.jpg" width="507" height="270"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b><a name="t1"></a>Growth rates of GDP per capita, GDP per worker, and GDP    per worker-hour, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars) </b></p>     <p><i>(percentage)</i> </p>     <p>[<a href="#topt1">table I</a>] </p>     <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06t1.jpg" width="400" height="544"></p>     
]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>Since there are no major differences in the record of GDP between the two databases,    the root of the divergence must be in employment data. Figure 3 shows the notable    differences between the employment series of the two databases. In 1960, Ameco’s    starting year, it indicates an employment level of about 4.5 million persons;    GGDC’s is of about 3.5 million, <i>a difference of 1 million, or more than 10%    of the total Portuguese population in that year</i>. It is not easy to know    how the two employment series were built, but it is easy to imagine the main    reason for the divergence. An old <i>vexata</i><i> quaestio</i> of the Portuguese    economy for the period between the 1960s and the 1980s is the low quality of    the Portuguese official demographic statistics, particularly the 1970 census.    Due to logistical problems and difficulty in grasping some of the new demographic    realities, the statistics office (<i>Instituto</i><i> Naciona de Estatística</i>    – INE) was only able to publish official figures with a very large margin of    error (at least 20%, acknowledged by INE itself — see INE, 1970).</b>This was    noted by various authors (such as Cónim, 1977, and Nazareth, 1984) and even    recognized by INE, which in 1980 published a new (corrected) total population    series for the period between 1940 and 1980 (INE, 1980). The quality of the    original statistical data prevents the construction of a good basic series.    It also poses serious challenges to anyone trying to build any sort of estimate.    The “creativity” shown by Ameco and GGDC demonstrates it.</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b><a name="f3"></a>Employment, Portugal, 1950-2007 (1000 of persons)</b></p>     <p>[<a href="#topf3">figure 3</a>]</p>     <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f3.jpg" width="506" height="292"></p>     
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>In order to tackle this problem I decided to search for information that could    improve the available series. In the process, I realized that “creativity” has    not been exclusive to the builders of international data sets, but has also    been used by the builders of national ones, and that much room for improvement    exists. With this in mind, I offer what I consider to be more reliable series    for total population, active population, employment, hours of work, and, as    a result, of GDP per capita, per worker and per worker-hour in Portugal from    1950 to 2007. This paper provides a description of the methods followed to build    the new series.</p>     <p>The remainder of the paper is arranged as follows. In the first section, I    discuss the drawbacks to the existing population, active population, employment,    and hours of work series, both at GGDC and Ameco, as well as in various national    sources. I then suggest a new manner of determining those series and present    the results. All new series are reproduced in an <a name="topa"></a><a href="#a">appendix</a>.  </p>      <p>In section 2, I use the new series to calculate a new set of series for      GDP per capita, GDP per worker and GDP per worker-hour. The findings are different      from those of both GGDC and Ameco, although essentially      confirming the picture depicted in the former with regard to the slowdown      years: a stronger slowdown in GDP per worker and per worker-hour than in GDP      per capita.</p>         ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>In section 3, I discuss the practical implications of the differences between    the various series, by comparing them with the Spanish economy. Whereas the    Ameco data imply a story that is similar for Portugal and Spain, with both countries    slowing-down at the same pace both in GDP per capita and in GDP per worker,    the GGDC and the new data suggest that in Spain there was a much stronger slowdown    in GDP per capita than in GDP per worker, whereas in Portugal they were similar.</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>         <p><b>New series for total population, active population, employment, and hours    of work</b></p>        <p>As we have seen, AMECO and GGDC give contradictory indications for the      performance of the Portuguese economy from 1950 to 2007, in particular during      the crucial slowdown years of the mid-1970s. The differences emerge from the      employment data, where “creativity” in their construction has been abundant.      It is not possible to know where Ameco’s employment      data come from, since no explanatory notes are available at Eurostat’s      site. As for GGDC’s, the explanatory notes tell      us that they come from various issues of OECD’s <i>Labour Force Statistics</i>      (OECD, various years). </p>      <p>But “creativity” has not been limited to the builders of international data sets. The same has occurred in Portugal. Figure 4 shows the two most recent efforts to reconstruct total population numbers in Portugal between 1950 and the 1990s, Pinheiro (1997) and Baganha and Marques (2001). Figures 5 and 6 show a few efforts referring to active population and employment (Nunes, 1989, Pinheiro, 1997, INE, 1979-1982 and 1983-1994, in addition to the original census figures, given in Nunes, 2001). It is certainly not easy to extract a clear picture from this contradictory collection of information.</p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>         <p><b><a name="f4"></a>Total population, Portugal, 1950-1990s (1000 of persons)</b></p>     <p>[<a href="#topf4">figure 4</a>]</p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f4.jpg" width="506" height="283"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><b><a name="f5"></a>Active population, Portugal, 1950-1990s (1000 of persons)</b></p>      <p>[<a href="#topf5">figure 5</a>] </p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f5.jpg" width="510" height="310"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b><a name="f6"></a>Employment, Portugal, 1950-1990s (1000 of persons)</b></p>      <p>[<a href="#topf6">figure 6</a>] </p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f6.jpg" width="506" height="308"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>Starting with total population and the Baganha and Marques (2001) series, we    can identify a few serious problems. The first is that these authors take for    granted the data coming from the censuses, which, as noted above, are rife with    errors. The second is that the annual figures are not genuine annual figures,    but rather linear interpolations between the 1960, 1970, 1981, and 1991 census    figures. This is a legitimate thing to do, of course, and even a potentially    correct one, in the absence of other information. As it happens, however, more    information <i>is </i>available. The original official figures were corrected    by Cónim (1977) not only for the 1960 and 1970 census years, but for the intermediate    years, as well. This was not just a casual and inconsequential revision, but    one that turned out to be adopted by INE from the 1980 Statistical Yearbook    (INE, 1980) onward.</p>      <p>Another problem is that the linear interpolation method, although statistically    correct, does not take into account some important events that do not fit the    simple decennial logic underlying it. We know that population declined during    the 1960s and early 1970s due to two combined effects: a surge in emigration    (see table II), involving the departure of more than one million persons from    the country from 1960 to 1973 (or <i>the equivalent of more than 10% of total    population</i>), and the large deployment of soldiers to the African Colonial    Wars between 1961 and 1974: in the final years of the war, between conscripts    and deserters more than 100,000 young men were enrolled for action in three    different theaters of war or fled the country, <i>the equivalent to roughly    1% of the total population</i> (see table III). </p>         ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>      <p><b>Emigration, Portugal, 1950-1988</b></p>     <p>[table II] </p>     <p><b>&nbsp;<img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06t2.jpg" width="476" height="788"></b></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Mainland conscripts in the African wars</b></p>     <p>[table III]</p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06t3.jpg" width="637" height="320"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>We also know that total population increased greatly from 1974 to 1976 (about    600,000 persons in three years, or <i>the equivalent to roughly 6% of the total    population</i>), resulting mostly from the return of colonists living in Africa    but returning to the mainland when the colonies gained independence. Consequently,    the linear interpolation effect introduces an unwarranted break in 1970. In    fact, emigration slowed decisively only from 1974 on, and the return of the    colonists started only in that same year and accelerated in 1975 and 1976. Any    reliable series must take these features into consideration. </p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>As for active population, the available series also pose extremely serious    problems. Starting from rather similar levels in 1950, the Nunes (1989), Pinheiro    (1997), and census series diverge only slightly in 1960 but are totally incompatible    in 1970, with a difference between the lowest level (from Nunes, 1989) and the    highest (from Pinheiro, 1997) of about <i>half a million persons</i> (the equivalent    to <i>more than 5% of total population</i>). It is not easy to understand the    origin of Nunes’ (1989) benchmark figures for 1960, 1970, and 1981, since she    uses the censuses as her source. Perhaps the difference comes from the fact    that she identifies active population with employment. As a matter of fact,    a constanly acknowledged correction of the official figures in Nunes (1989)    is: “we have considered as ‘active population’ only the group of active people    with a profession”. This is obviously a problem, which is compounded with the    use, again, of linear interpolation: “the method… [to find the annual figures    was] linear interpolation of the activity rate in each region” (Nunes, 1989).    The regions were then aggregated to give total figures. As with total population,    there is no reason to believe in a break in the series in 1970. Quite the contrary,    there are reasons to believe in a continuation of the previous trend, with a    break taking place only in 1974.</p>     <p>Pinheiro (1997) did not adopt the original census figures for total population,    but the Cónim (1977)/INE(1980) ones instead, thus correcting the first’s main    errors. The problem here refers to active population. It is not easy to understand    why, according to Pinheiro (1997), despite a decline in total population between    1960 and 1970, active population not only continued to increase, but increase    very quickly. The implicit participation rate jumps about 5 percentage points    between 1953 and 1973. Although we may presume a slight increase in participation    as a consequence of labor scarcity, a figure this large is highly unlikely.    Population declined mostly due to the abandonment of the country by a large    number of active men (either emigrating or being mobilized into military service    abroad), but the variable that should have reflected this shows an increase.    Additionally, the Pinheiro (1997) series shows a decline of active population    between 1974 and 1976, precisely at the time of the ex-colonists’ return (as    mentioned above, a population influx of about 600,000 persons, most of them    active – according to Pires <i>et al.,</i> 1984, about 80% of returned colonists    had ages between 15 and 65), of the abrupt slowdown in emigration, and of the    end of military deployment to the Colonial Wars. It is difficult to understand    how and why active population would decline so significantly under these circumstances.    These figures are particularly puzzling when we consider that Pinheiro (1997)    adopted the corrected total population data. </p>      <p>The problems with active population data do not stop there, as revealed by    the INE (1979-1982 and 1983-1994) series for the period between 1974 and 1994,    shown in <a name="topf5"></a><a href="#f5">figure 5</a>. This extra series shows    a very anomalous behavior between 1983 and 1991, in what seems to be a statistical    record error. This poses an additional challenge to obtaining a complete picture    for the full period between 1950 and 2007. As discussed in the 1979 volume of    INE (1979-1982), there were many doubts at the time concerning the coverage    of these surveys. Two main problems raised doubts over the actual figures for    employment and unemployment: the low quality of the 1970 census and the difficulties    in tracking the activity of a large number of returned colonists. A common thought    at the time was that unemployment was underestimated. On the other hand, this    is also a period of increase of the shadow economy, which was able to absorb    a significant part of the new labor shock (cf. Cabral, 1983). So, ultimately,    the data we use, despite some inevitable errors, should not be too far from    the employment reality of those years. </p>        <p>Clearly then, full and coherent series for total population and active      population in this period are impossible to obtain by simply gathering data      from existing sources. Some process of (re)construction has to be used instead.      Due to the implausibility of the existing series, room for improvement is      ample, and that is what I offer here. </p>         <p>As a first step, I adopted the corrected figures for total population given    in Cónim (1977) and INE (1980) for the period between 1950 and 1980. This series    was then chained with the official figures for the period between 1980 and 2007    given on the INE site (see INE). The results are presented in <a name="topf4"></a><a href="#f4">figure    4</a> and compared with the existing series. The new series is essentially similar    to Pinheiro’s (1997) until 1981, something that is not surprising, since their    fundamental data are the same. From then on, however, they diverge. The two    series are significantly different from Baganha and Marques (2001). This is    understandable, as the latter is a linear interpolation of the official census    figures. In general, the effect of the new series is to shift the figures upward.    In the late-1960s the difference between the new series and Baganha and Marques    (2001) reaches about 500,000 persons. The two sets of data converge only in    1974. A clear advantage of the new series is the avoidance of linear interpolation.    Thus, it reflects not only the most important population movements of the 1960s,    but also those of the mid-1970s. The new series shows neither the sudden break    in 1970 nor the artificial regular growth between censuses. As described below,    due to these more realistic features, I used it as a benchmark to determine    active population.</p>        <p>We should pause here to understand better the main principles used in Cónim’s (1977) revision of total population and its effects      in comparison with the official figures. Cónim’s      (1977) purpose was to include population movements that had been underreported      and misreported in official statistics, especially illegal emigration and      definitive returns of former emigrants (which can be easily confounded with      regular short-term movements at the borders —      these also increased due to the growth of tourism, thus helping to      blur the picture even more), as well as another population movement that (as      a result of its own peculiar circumstances) was also misreported: the return      of colonists from Africa. As stated in Cónim (1976):      “If, on the one hand, we have witnessed the stabilization-diminution of the      intensity of certain events (the natural population movement), on the other,      migratory phenomena have acquired a behavior that      we must classify as ‘exceptional’”.This, together with the suspicion      that the 1960 and 1970 censuses (especially the latter), were surveys of very      poor quality, led Cónim (1977) to reconstruct data      for total population (see also INE, 1980, and Nazareth, 1984). The method      was to combine the official yearly statistics for births and deaths with the      official statistics for legal emigration, plus some estimates for illegal      emigration, emigrants’ returns and colonists’ returns, all corrected with      data provided by the 1975 and 1976 electoral censuses (for details, see Cónim,      1977). The latter were especially important in order to determine the actual      numbers as well as the age and gender structure of returned colonists, which      were not reported in the official statistics (Cónim,      1976).</p>         <p>Neither Cónim (1977) nor INE (1980) provide a corrected active population series,    and as a result, I decided to build a new one. Four steps were taken. First,    I interpolated linearly between the official census figures for active population    for 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1981, in order to have a continuous series. I decided    to build this new series rather than use Nunes’ (1989) due to the problems identified    above. Second, I derived the participation rate by finding the ratio of the    new series over the Baganha and Marques (2001) total population series. Since    the source used in both is the same (the censuses), their errors (namely the    undervaluation of the population size) should at least be consistent among them.    Additionally, the method followed to find the inter-census figures (linear interpolation)    was the same. I thus obtained a continuous participation rate series. In a third    step, I applied this participation rate series to the corrected total population    series in order to obtain a continuous series with absolute figures for active    population between 1950 and 1981. In a final step, I chained this series with    those coming from Pinheiro (1997) for the period between 1981 and 1992, and    then with the official figures given in the INE site for the period between    1992 and 2007. Pinheiro’s (1997) figures seem to be reliable for the 1981-1992    period, since they are a plausible correction of the series given by INE (1979-1982    and 1983-1994). The series thus obtained is presented in <a href="#f5">figure    5</a> and compared with the other series previously available. </p>        <p>The new series presents various advantages over the existing ones. First,      although built indirectly for the most difficult period (1950 to 1981), it      uses as a benchmark the more realistic total population series given in Cónim (1977) and INE (1980). Since participation rates tend      to change slower than do absolute figures, the procedure used is preferable      to the simple linear interpolation of absolute figures. Then, if we compare      its behavior with that of the other series, it reflects the major      population movements in Portugal in the period between 1960 and 1981. First,      it corrects for the apparent undervaluation of absolute figures in the 1960      and 1970 censuses noted (and corrected) by Cónim      (1977). Second, it presents a much higher overall level than the Nunes (1989) figures. Third, and contrary to the unexplainable      ascending movement between 1960 and 1974 given by Pinheiro (1997), it incorporates in active population the      decline in total population given by the corrected figures. Fourth, it shows      a sudden increase in active population between 1974 and 1976, something that      is much more plausible than the sudden and constant increase from 1970 to      1981 given by Nunes (1989), but also more plausible      than the decline between 1974 and 1976 given by Pinheiro      (1997). Although it is impossible to claim that this is a perfect series,      it seems to improve considerably on the existing alternatives. </p>      <p>In addition to the aggregated series, I also provide here a few estimates for    active population separated by gender. Although not crucial for the calculation    of GDP per worker, this breakdown is interesting due to its relation with a    classic topic of Portuguese social, economic, and demographic history: the increase    of female participation in the labor force from the 1960s onward, as a consequence    of emigration and military deployment in the colonies. In order to build the    data given in figure 7, I first obtained the participation rates by gender implied    by the 1960, 1970, 1981, and 1991 censuses. Then, I applied this rate to the    new aggregate series for active population that was calculated as explained    in the previous paragraph. From 1992 to 2007, the participation rates by gender    were calculated from the figures given on INE’s website. These rates were then    applied to the new aggregate series. The results confirm the traditional idea    regarding female participation: from 1960 onward, it grew persistently, in a    process that has continued until today. If we look at the participation rate    by gender that is given on table IV, we can see that female participation grew    from 18% in 1960 to 47% in 2007. This was accompanied by a decline in male participation,    from 82% in 1960 to 53% in 2007. The two rates have converged to nearly the    same level. The decrease in male participation has to do with the growth of    the dependency rate, explainable by the decline in birth rates, by the delayed    entry in the labor market of youth, who have continued to extend their studies,    and by the growth of retired people thanks to the increase in life expectancy.    The increase in female participation is explained by the continuous entry of    women in the labor market.</p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>        ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><b>Active population by gender, Portugal, 1950-2007 (1000 of persons)</b></p>      <p>[figure 7]</p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f7.jpg" width="637" height="344"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Participation rate by gender, Portugal, 1950-2007 </b></p>      <p><i>(percentage)</i></p>         <p>[table IV]<b><i></i></b></p>      <p><b><i>&nbsp;<img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06t4.jpg" width="395" height="184"></i></b></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>Finally, in order to find an employment series (the variable of real interest    to build GDP per worker and per worker-hour series) I used the unemployment    rate between 1950 and 1992 given in Pinheiro (1997) and applied it to the new    active population series. The resulting employment series was then chained with    the employment figures given on INE’s website site for the period between 1992    and 2007. <a name="topf6"></a><a href="#f6">Figure 6</a> compares the resulting    series with the existing ones.</p>      ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>We are now in a position to make some observations on the comparison between    the employment figures thus found with those in Ameco and GGDC. As <a name="topf3"></a><a href="#f3">figure    3</a> shows, the new series is much closer to GGDC than to Ameco, although avoiding    some of its less understandable movements at particular points in time, mostly    in the critical period between 1960 and the mid-1970s: the GGDC series displays    a “syncopated” configuration that suggests an abundant use of linear interpolation.    Figure 8 provides a comparison between the employment rates implied by the two    data sets and by the new series.</p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>         <p><b>Employment rate, Portugal, 1950-2007 </b></p>      <p><i>(percentage)</i></p>      <p>[figure 8]</p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f8.jpg" width="510" height="303"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>A final element we need in order to complete the picture of labor supply in    Portugal between 1950 and 2007 is a series for hours of work. Again, data problems    abound. Ameco does not provide any series. As for GGDC, “creativity” seems to    have been used again, in the absence of reliable official (or other) data. Figure    9 shows the series provided by GGDC. As explained in the GGDC notes, the series    until 1987 is built through a) linear interpolations between the 1950, 1960,    and 1973 benchmarks, which were obtained from OECD (various years); <i>b</i>)    interpolations from 1974 to 1978 and from 1980 to 1985; <i>c</i>) extrapolation    from 1990 to the period 1986-1989, with a trend obtained from OECD (2008); <i>d</i>)    direct information from Eurostat’s New Chronos database for the period 1990-2007.    I offer here an alternative. It is not perfect, but it is at least grounded    in more direct data. </p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>      <p><b>Annual hours of work, Portugal, 1950-2007</b></p>          ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p> [figure      n.º 9] </p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f9.jpg" width="507" height="275"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>Even if there are no series for hours of work in Portugal for the whole economy    until 1990, there are figures for weekly working hours in manufacturing from    1950 to 1990, as well as some less systematic information for a few other sectors    (e. g. fishing and transportation) (INE, 1961-1991). In the absence of systematic    figures for other sectors, I assumed the manufacturing series to be representative    of all sectors of the economy. As there seem to be some questions concerning    the quality of the data until 1955, I decided to reject the figures for the    1950-1955 years and start the series in 1956 (cf. Guimarães, 1966). I then found    the yearly growth rates of the series and an initial value that, once linked    with the growth rates, could be spliced with the 1990 level provided by the    New Chronos database used by GGDC. The results are clearly different from GGDC.    Whereas GGDC shows a continuous linear decline from 1950 to 1990, the new series    shows first an increase from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s, then a mild decline    until 1974, then a strong decline until the early-1980s, and finally stability    until the end of the decade.</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>New GDP per capita, per worker, and per worker-hour series </b></p>        <p>With the new and better population, employment, and hours of work data,      I could finally build new series for GDP per capita, per worker, and per worker-hour.      Fortunately, the existing GDP figures are generally considered to be of good      quality. Consequently, there was no need for new calculations here, except      for chaining the Pinheiro (1997) series (used as      a benchmark), which stops in 1995, with the figures given on the INE site      for the period between 1995 and 2007. Also, it was necessary to convert the      new series into a comparable international unit. I chose PPP 1990 Geary--Khamis dollars, in which all data in GGDC as well as Maddison (1995 and 2006) are given. The same was also done      to the Ameco series, which are originally presented      in euros. </p>         <p><a name="topf1"></a><a href="#f1">Figures 1</a> and <a name="topf2"></a><a href="#f2">2</a>    show the new series and compare them with Ameco and GGDC. <a name="topt1"></a><a href="#t1">Table    I</a> shows the average growth rates for various sub-periods. Using the new    population series has the consequence of significantly lowering the level of    GDP per capita in the period between 1973 and 1980. However, this is not readily    reflected in the average growth rate between 1973 and 1986. The reason is that    the three series converge to the same level in the early- to mid-1980s. The    decline in GDP per capita in Portugal is much more pronounced in the new series    for the period between 1974 and 1976, but so too is the recovery from 1976 onward.    For the rest of the period, the series are essentially coincident, both in terms    of levels and growth. </p>        <p>As for the GDP per worker series, the differences are much clearer. In      level terms, the new series starts more or less at the same point as the GGDC      series, which is higher than Ameco’s. Then, in the      1960s, it diverges and declines progressively to a level somewhere halfway      between the Ameco and GGDC series, until 1973. Then,      it approaches the level of the Ameco series until      the mid-1990s. After the mid-1990s, it declines in relation to both Ameco and GGDC. In terms of growth rates, the result of this      path is a slightly lower rate in the 1960s until 1973, in relation to both      Ameco and GGDC; a rate somewhere between Ameco and GGDC from 1973 to 1986; a similar rate from 1986      to 2000; and a slightly lower rate from 2000 to 2007. Ultimately, even if      the growth rate is higher for the slowdown years of the mid-1970s than in      GGDC, the new series confirms the picture of a simultaneous decline both in      terms of GDP per capita and GDP per worker, contrary to what was implied by      Ameco, where the decline in the growth of GDP per capita was      much stronger than the decline in productivity. </p>         <p>The new GDP per worker-hour series is presented in figure 10 and the growth    rates are presented in <a href="#t1">table I</a>. In the new series, the level    of GDP per worker-hour is generally lower than in GGDC. The average growth rate    is significantly lower in the 1950s and less so in the 1960s, but is higher    in the period between 1973 and 1986. In GDP per worker-hour terms, the result    is thus less negative than implied by GGDC for the slowdown years.</p>         ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>      <p><b>GDP per worker-hour, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars)</b></p>        <p>[figure      10] </p>         <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06f10.jpg" width="512" height="297"></p>     
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Practical implications: a comparison with Spain</b></p>     <p>As shown above, the differences between the Ameco and GGDC series in the 1970s    and 1980s lead to two entirely different scenarios with respect to the mid-1970s    slowdown of the Portuguese economy. Whereas GGDC data indicate a paltry Portuguese    performance in terms of productivity, Ameco’s correspond to a respectable one.    The consequences for the interpretation of the Portuguese economy’s performance    in that period can perhaps be best understood if put into a comparative framework.    A comparison with Spain shows that, according to Ameco figures, the two economies    slowed-down in the mid-1970s essentially in the same manner: both grew very    quickly during the 1960s, in per capita as well as per worker terms; then, during    the 1970s, slowdown was similarly stronger in both measures. As shown in table    V, Portugal went from an average growth rate of GDP per capita of 6.43% between    1960 and 1973 to one of 1.21% between 1973 and 1986, whereas in Spain the figures    were 5.99% between 1960 and 1974 and 0.87% in 1974 to 1986; in terms of GDP    per worker the evolution is similar in the two countries: 6.61% to 3.01% for    Portugal between the two periods, and 6.4% to 2.92% for Spain. According to    Ameco figures, we would thus have an essentially similar performance between    the two countries. That is not the case with GGDC data: although decline in    GDP per capita is virtually identical between them (6.95% to 1.62% in Portugal    from 1960-1973 to 1973-1986, and 7.24% to 1.72% in Spain), it was completely    different in productivity terms (6.83% to 1.13% in Portugal, and 7.44% to 3.86%    in Spain). In the case of GGDC, productivity exhausts the explanation of Portugal’s    slowdown, but not Spain’s, where a still respectable productivity performance    was not reflected in GDP per capita. </p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Growth rates of GDP per capita, GDP per worker, and GDP per worker-hour,    Portugal and Spain, 1950-2007 </b></p>             <p><i>(percentage)</i></p>      ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>[table V] </p>     <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06t5.jpg" width="563" height="524"></p>     
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>These contradictions show that, depending on the dataset used, one extracts    entirely different conclusions on the comparative behavior of the Portuguese    and Spanish economies. According to Ameco figures, the two economies’ slowdowns    were not due to serious productivity problems, but rather to employment problems.    According to GGDC figures, this is Spain’s problem only; Portugal’s problem    is essentially one of productivity. The lessons to draw are consequently entirely    different. The new series presented in this paper, although marginally improving    the productivity record of the Portuguese economy, confirm the general idea    transmitted by GGDC: if the slowdown in GDP per capita was similar in Portugal    and in Spain, the slowdown in productivity was much stronger in Portugal than    in Spain. </p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Conclusion</b> </p>        <p>Ameco and GGDC datasets      lead to two contrasting pictures of the performance of the Portuguese economy      during the slowdown period of the mid-1970s. Although they display virtually      no difference in terms of GDP per capita, the same does not occur with GDP      per worker, with Ameco showing higher rates in that      period. These differences lead to two entirely different interpretations of      the performance of the Portuguese economy during the mid-1970s slowdown. Whereas      GGDC data indicate a very poor Portuguese performance in terms of productivity      from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, Ameco’s indicate      the opposite. </p>      <p>I showed in this paper that the reason for this is the different employment    data used in the two data sets and that the origin of the problem is the low    quality of the official population statistics from the 1960s to 1973. In order    to tackle this problem I built new and more reliable series for population,    employment, hours of work, and consequently, for GDP per capita, per worker,    and per worker-hour in Portugal from 1950 to 2007. Although imperfect, I believe    the new series are considerably better than those available until now.</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>References</b> </p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<!-- ref --><p>Baganha, m. i. (1994), “As correntes emigratórias portuguesas no século xx    e o seu impacto na economia nacional”, <i>Análise Social,</i> xxix (4), pp.    959-980. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000133&pid=S0003-2573200900040000600001&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><p>Baganha, m. i., and Marques, j. c. (2001), “População”. <i>In</i> N. Valério    (ed.), <i>Estatísticas Históricas,</i> Lisbon, INE.</p>     <!-- ref --><p>Cabral, m. v. (1983), “A economia subterrânea vem ao de cima: estratégias da    população rural perante a industrialização e a urbanização”, <i>Análise Social,</i>    xix (2), pp. 199-234. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000135&pid=S0003-2573200900040000600002&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><p>Cann, j. p. (1998), <i>Contra-Insurreição em África: O Modo Português de Fazer    a Guerra, 1961-1974</i>, Lisbon, Atena. </p>     <p>Cónim, c. (1976), <i>Algumas Considerações sobre a Situação Demográfica Portuguesa    de 1960 a 1975,</i> Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>Cónim, c. (1977), <i>Estimativas da População Residente no Continente, Açores    e Madeira, por Sexos e Grupos Etários em 31 de Dezembro (1941-1975)</i>, Lisbon,    INE. </p>     <p>Eurostat, AMECO, <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco/user/serie/SelectSerie.cfm" target=" blank">http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco/user/serie/SelectSerie.cfm</a>. </p>     <p>GGDC (Groningen Growth and Development Centre), <a href="http://www.ggdc.net/databases/ted.htm" target=" blank">http://www.ggdc.net/databases/ted.htm</a>  </p>     <p>Guimarães, F. L. M. (1966), <i>Estatísticas da Duração do Trabalho,</i> Lisbon,    FDMO. </p>     <p>INE, Instituto Nacional de Estatística, <a href="http://www.ine.pt/xporta/" target="_blank">http://www.ine.pt/xporta/</a>.  </p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>INE (1980), <i>Anuário Estatístico,</i> Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>INE (1961-1991), <i>Anuário Estatístico,</i> Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>INE (1979-1982), <i>Inquérito Permanente ao Emprego,</i> Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>INE (1983-1994), <i>Inquérito ao Emprego,</i> Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>INE (1970), <i>Recenseamento Geral da População,</i> Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>Maddison, A. (1989), <i>World Economy in the Twentieth</i> Century, Paris,    OECD. </p>     <p>Maddison, A. (1995), <i>Monitoring the World Economy, 1820-1995</i>, Paris,    OECD. </p>     <p>Maddison, A. (2006), <i>The</i><i> World Economy,</i> Paris, OECD. </p>     <!-- ref --><p>Nazareth, J. M. (1984), “Conjuntura demográfica da população portuguesa no    período de 1970-80: aspectos globais”, <i>Análise Social,</i> xx (2-3), pp.    237-262. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=000151&pid=S0003-2573200900040000600003&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><p>Nunes, A. B. (1989), <i>População Activa e Actividade Económica em Portugal    dos Finais do Século XIX à Actualidade,</i> PhD dissertation, Lisbon, ISEG.  </p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>Nunes, A. B. (2001), “Actividade económica da população”. <i>In</i> N. Valério    (ed.), <i>Estatísticas Históricas,</i> pp. 149-195, Lisbon, INE. </p>     <p>OECD (various years), <i>Labour Force Statistics,</i> Paris, OECD. </p>     <p>OECD (2008), <i>Employment Outlook 2008,</i> Paris, OECD. </p>     <p>Pinheiro, M. (1997), <i>Séries Longas para a Economia Portuguesa, Pós-II Guerra    Mundial, </i>vo. i,<i> Séries Estatísticas,</i> Lisbon, Banco de Portugal. </p>     <p>Pires, R. P., <i>et</i><i> al</i>. (1984), <i>Os Retornados, Um Estudo Sociográfico,</i>    Lisbon, IED.</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b><a name="a"></a><a href="#topa">APPENDIX</a></b></p>      <p><b>Series</b></p>      <p>&nbsp;</p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><b>&nbsp;</b>[table A.I] </p>        <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a1.jpg" width="561" height="509"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Active Population, Portugal, 1950-2007 (1000 of persons)</b></p>      <p>[table A.II] </p>     <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a2.jpg" width="561" height="510"></p>     
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Employment</b>, <b>Portugal, 1950-2007 (1000 of persons)</b></p>         <p>[table A.III] </p>     <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a3.jpg" width="557" height="284"></p>     
]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>Annual Hours of Work, Portugal, 1950-2007</b></p>         <p>[table A.IV] </p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a4.jpg" width="557" height="247"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>GDP per capita, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars)</b></p>      <p> [table A.V] </p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a5.jpg" width="558" height="282"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>GDP per worker, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars)</b></p>      ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>[table A.VI] </p>      <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a6.jpg" width="558" height="282"></p>      
<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><b>GDP per worker-hour, Portugal, 1950-2007 (PPP 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars)</b></p>         <p>[table A.VII]</p>     <p><img src="/img/revistas/aso/n193/n193a06a7.jpg" width="557" height="250"></p>     
 ]]></body><back>
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<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[As correntes emigratórias portuguesas no século xx e o seu impacto na economia nacional]]></article-title>
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<source><![CDATA[Análise Social]]></source>
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