<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0871-018X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Ciências Agrárias]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. de Ciências Agrárias]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0871-018X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedade de Ciências Agrárias de Portugal]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0871-018X2023000200011</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.19084/rca.31320</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Modelo regional da previsão da produção da amêndoa na região agrária de Trás-os-Montes]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Regional model for predicting almond production in the Trás-os-Montes agrarian region]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Freitas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Teresa R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[João A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fraga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hélder]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD) Centro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas (CITAB) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Vila Real ]]></addr-line>
<country>Portugal</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>46</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>11</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0871-018X2023000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0871-018X2023000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0871-018X2023000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo A amendoeira (Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb) é uma espécie com elevada importância económica e social, em Portugal. Em 2020, Portugal continental produziu aproximadamente 32 × 103 toneladas de amêndoa, para uma área de 52340 ha. Embora, atualmente o país apresente condições climáticas favoráveis ao desenvolvimento da espécie, no futuro, os efeitos das alterações climáticas podem alterar os padrões climáticos e afetar a produção da espécie. No presente estudo, desenvolveu-se um modelo regional da previsão da produção da amendoeira, para Trás-os-Montes. Esta região, situada a nordeste de Portugal, é caraterizada por práticas agrícolas e culturas tradicionais, de sequeiro. Aplicou-se o método de stepwise, com modelos de regressão múltipla. Como variáveis de entrada utilizaram-se: precipitação, temperatura média, radiação, amplitude térmica, humidade relativa e produção do ano anterior. No caso das variáveis climáticas, utilizou-se a base de dados histórica - E-OBS (1986-2020), no futuro utilizou-se o modelo - CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5 (2021-2080). Os valores foram calculados para a média bissemanais, de janeiro a maio. Como resultado, o modelo (R2 = 0,75) destacou as variáveis mais representativas da produção de amêndoa: precipitação na 2ª quinzena de maio, a radiação da 1ª quinzena de janeiro, a radiação da 1ªquinzena de maio e a produção do ano anterior. Quando aplicado o modelo para os dados futuros, este indica que ocorrerá uma variação acentuada da produção. Este modelo é uma ferramenta viável para a previsão da produção. Para complementar o estudo, sugere-se o desenvolvimento de novas metodologias.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The almond tree (Prunus dulcis) is a species with high economic and social importance in Portugal. In 2020, mainland Portugal produced approximately 32 × 103 t of almonds, for an area of 52340 ha. Currently, the country presents favourable climatic conditions for the development of the species. However, in the future, the effects of climate change may alter the weather patterns and consequently affect the species' productivity. In the present study, a regional model was developed to predict the almond tree productivity, for the Trás-os-Montes. This region, situated in the northeastern of Portugal, is characterized by traditional agricultural practices and rainfed crops. The stepwise method was applied, with multiple regression models. As input variables were used: precipitation, mean temperature, radiation, thermal amplitude, relative humidity and production of the previous year. In the case of climate variables, the historical database - E-OBS (1986-2020) was used, in the future the model - CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5 (2021-2080) was used. The values were calculated for the bi-weekly average, from January to May. As a result, the model (R2 = 0.75) highlighted the most representative variables: precipitation in the 2nd fortnight of May, the radiation of the 1st fortnight of January, the radiation of the 1st fortnight of May and the productivity of the previous year. When the model is applied to future data, it indicates that a sharp variation in productivity will occur. This model is a viable tool for production forecasting. To complement the study, the development of new methodologies is suggested.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[amendoeira]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[método Stepwise]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[precipitação]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[radiação]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[cenários futuros]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[histórico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[almond tree]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stepwise method]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[precipitation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[radiation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[future scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[historic]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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