Conceição Castro^*

mariacastro@eseig.ipp.pt

Resumo. Os recentes desenvolvimentos da teoria do crescimento económico sugerem que a política fiscal pode ter efeitos importantes no crescimento económico de longo prazo. O objectivo deste artigo é investigar o impacto da política fiscal no crescimento económico de longo prazo, utilizando dados em painel para os Estados-membros da UE15 (com excepção de Luxemburgo), no período 1965-2000. Partindo do enquadramento teórico de Barro (1990), formula-se um modelo onde a taxa de crescimento real é determinada por variáveis das finanças públicas, esperando que a redução de impostos distorcionários e o aumento de despesas públicas produtivas fomentem o crescimento económico. No caso da UE15, os resultados sugerem que o aumento da dimensão do sector público (despesas ou impostos) retarda o crescimento e, em particular, uma redução dos impostos sobre o trabalho e o capital podem acelerar o crescimento económico de longo prazo.

Palavras-chave: Política fiscal – crescimento económico de longo prazo

Abstract. Recent developments in the theory of growth suggest that fiscal policy can have important effects on long-run growth. The aim of this article is to investigate the impact of fiscal policy on long-run growth, using a pannel data for the UE15 members (except Luxemburg), on the period 1965-2000. Based on Barro (1990) theoretical framework, we develop a model where the real growth rate is determined by variables of public finances, expecting that reducing distorcionary taxes or augmenting productive public expenditures enhance growth. In the case of the UE15, findings suggest that an increase in the size of government (expenditures or taxes) leads to slower growth in the long-run, and the decrease of labour or capital taxes, in particular, could promote growth in the long-run.

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^* ESEIG - Escola Superior de Estudos Industriais e de Gestão, Instituto Politécnico do Porto