<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1646-9895</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[RISTI - Revista Ibérica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informação]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[RISTI]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1646-9895</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[AISTI - Associação Ibérica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informação]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1646-98952020000500128</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17013/risti.40.128-145</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Previsões de mortalidade e de esperança de vida mediante combinação Bayesiana de modelos: Uma aplicação à população portuguesa]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mortality and life expectancy forecasts using Bayesian model combinations: An application to the Portuguese population]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bravo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ayuso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mercedes]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Nova de Lisboa NOVA IMS ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Lisbon ]]></addr-line>
<country>Portugal</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Université Paris-Dauphine PSL  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Paris ]]></addr-line>
<country>França</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,CEFAGE-EU  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Evóra ]]></addr-line>
<country>Portugal</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Barcelona Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economy ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Barcelona ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Faculty of Economics and Business Riskcenter-UB ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Barcelona ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>31</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>40</numero>
<fpage>128</fpage>
<lpage>145</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1646-98952020000500128&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1646-98952020000500128&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1646-98952020000500128&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Neste artigo desenvolve-se um modelo de previsão da mortalidade específica por idade e da esperança de vida mediante combinação Bayesiana de modelos (Bayesian Model Ensemble). O procedimento envolve a selecção do subconjunto de modelos a usar e a determinação dos respectivos ponderadores. São ainda calculados intervalos de confiança para as variáveis de interesse usando uma metodologia assente em Bayesian credible prediction intervals considerando o risco de modelo. Os modelos são calibrados à população portuguesa desagregada por sexo usando informação estatística relativa ao período 1960-2018 e às idades no intervalo 60-125. São efectuadas previsões até 2050. Os resultados obtidos antecipam a continuação do aumento da esperança de vida por período e por coorte nas idades adultas registado nas últimas décadas e sinalizam a existência nos sistemas de protecção social de impostos/subsídios implícitos entre gerações que distorcem as decisões de consumo, de mercado de trabalho e de poupança e questionam a justiça intergeracional.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this paper we forecast age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy measures using an adaptive Bayesian Model Ensemble of heterogeneous models. The procedure involves both the selection of the model confidence set and the determination of optimal weights. Model-averaged Bayesian credible prediction intervals are derived accounting for both the uncertainty arising from model error and parameter uncertainty. The models are calibrated to Portuguese population data in the period 1960-2018 and age range 60-125 and forecasted to 2050. The results anticipate a continuous increase in both period and cohort life expectancy at adult ages and signal significant implicit taxes and subsidies between generations, which distort consumption, saving and investment decisions and challenge intergenerational fairness.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Bayesian Model Ensemble]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[esperança de vida]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[modelos de previsão]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[modelos de mortalidade estocásticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[risco longevidade.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian Model Ensemble]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[life expectancy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting methods]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stochastic mortality models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[longevity risk.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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