Abstract

KADUšIć, Alma; TANOVIć, Mariana Lukić; SMAJIć, Nedima  and  AVDIć, Aida. Spatial disparities in population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina: K-Means Clustering approach. Finisterra [online]. 2025, n.130, e39994.  Epub Dec 31, 2025. ISSN 0430-5027.  https://doi.org/10.18055/finis39994.

Population ageing is one of the main demographic issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This country has been facing significant ageing, with spatial differences in the pace and level of ageing. To determine spatial disparities in population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina, data on ageing coefficient, ageing index, dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, and the average age in the period from 2013 to 2023 were used. Cluster analysis is applied to determine groups of municipalities with similar levels of ageing. To group municipalities into clusters, a non-hierarchical clustering method, k-means clustering, is used. Analysis was performed by experimenting with various clustering alternatives between 2 and 5 clusters, while the Elbow method, Calinski-Harabasz pseudo F-statistic, and Tukey`s Honestly Significant Difference test were used to validate the appropriate number of clusters. Results confirmed clusters with different levels of population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The most adverse trends in population ageing are confirmed in the rural municipalities of Western Herzegovina and Eastern Bosnia. The results of this study can serve as a basis for further research on the population ageing process and the planning of future demographic development in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Keywords : Bosnia and Herzegovina; population ageing; spatial disparities; cluster analysis; k-means clustering.

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